One thing is certain. This year’s Final Four is as evenly matched as any Final Four in recent memory. Michigan State is the defending champion, Duke finished the regular season #1, Arizona was the Associated Press preseason #1, and Maryland smoked a Stanford team that only had two previous one-point losses. These teams are all really good basketball teams, and only Maryland needed a little luck to advance this far. This writer, on the other hand, is really bad and a little unlucky at predicting March Madness basketball games.

Somehow, even though all four of these teams were in the Associated Press top five to start the season and each was the popular favorite to advance to the Final Four, I managed to pick four other schools that did not make it. In fact, two of my choices lost in the first round and another did not survive the opening weekend. Only Illinois came close to making the Final Four.

Thus the following will probably doom the two teams that I will predict in the title game. My predicted winner might just be down 20 at half time. But since most columnists rarely accurately predict the tournament, I have no qualms about utilizing my position on TSL to air my views.

First, let’s look at the numbers.

Michigan State averaged the fewest number of turnovers (13.4) and the most rebounds (39.4). Their rebounding statistic is particularly impressive because they play at a lower tempo than the other Final Four teams. In the tournament, the Spartans are plus 74 on the boards. The Spartans’ ability to take care of the ball offsets their potential weakness at the point where Charlie Bell was forced to move from the two guard spot. A further advantage and testament to their inside game is that the Spartans shot the highest percentage from the field at 49 percent.

Arizona dominates in a very important statistic in tournament time. The Wildcats have shot 75 percent this season. Loren Woods has shot over 80 percent. Against Illinois, the Wildcats lived on the line scoring 43 of their 87 points while shooting 76 percent. A potential weakness for Arizona might be turnovers. The Wildcats averaged 15 during the regular season and have averaged 17 in the tournament.

Duke numbers demonstrate a high-powered offensive machine. The Blue Devils put up close to 91 points per game this season. Much of this offensive comes from behind the arc, where Duke shot the highest percentage (39) and the most per game (10.4) of the Final Four participants. The Blue Devils have continued to shoot the three in the tournament, averaging 30 attempts and 11 makes each game. Their three-point shooting proficiency hides their weak interior play.

Maryland averages the most assists per game of the Final Four participants, a testament to their many talented scorers. Maryland’s three-point shooting (38 percent) was almost as proficient as Duke’s and they scored 85 points per game. In the Stanford game, the Terps connected on 9-13 treys. Maryland, however, relies much more on its interior players and averages two more rebounds per game than Duke.

Numbers cannot tell the whole story and these games will most likely come down to clutch shots and defensive stops.

Jason Gardner of Arizona showed that he was willing to take and make the big shot. Against Illinois, Gardner buried a NBA-length three to put the Wildcats up by six late in the second half. Michael Wright and Gilbert Arenas provide them with inside and outside scoring options.

Michigan State’s remaining Flintstone Charlie Bell can score as well as control the point. Bell learned leadership and will from a master, Mateen Cleaves. Jason Richardson can soar from outside or soar inside and Andre Hutson used his size to score at a 60 percent rate this season.

Maryland has Lonny Baxter and Juan Dixon who scored at will to counter every Stanford comeback this weekend. Even when Ryan Mendez started a three-point shooting clinic, Dixon and Baxter refused to relent. Baxter even scored on a drive with a left-handed finish.

All-Americans Shane Battier and Jason Williams lead the Blue Devils. Battier has averaged 23 points a game during the Jason Williams’ show or NCAA tournament. Williams has averaged 29 points including 17 in a row for Duke against UCLA. Plus freshman Chris Duhon knocked down a pair of second-half treys against USC.

Michigan State remains one of the premier defensive teams in the country. Athletic players on the perimeter and strong and tough interior players make the Spartans a difficult team to score on. Michigan State clamped down on Quincy Wadley, holding Temple’s leading scorer to four points on 2-12 shooting. Plus, against the Spartans you only have one shot each time. No team clears the defensive glass better.

Arizona’s defensive is extremely athletic. Richard Jefferson smothered Big Ten Player of the Year Frank Williams last Sunday, holding him to one basket in his first ten shots. Loren Woods blocks or alters every shot that comes into the paint. The Wildcats also demonstrated that they can play tough against a physical and deep Illinois team. After getting manhandled on the offensive glass in the first half, Arizona bore down in the second and limited Illinois to two second-half offensive boards. It was a good thing too, because men all over the country might have committed suicide if they heard Bill Walton criticize Arizona’s frontcourt one more time.

Duke’s defensive begins with Battier, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year. Remember that this man earned time as a defensive stopper when Elton Brand, William Avery, and Trajan Langdon led the Blue Devils to the title game in 1999. Battier blocks shots and takes charges. Williams, Duhon, and Nate James are excellent perimeter defenders. Duke’s defense has had problems at times. Both Virginia and Maryland topped 90 points against them this season.

Maryland plays high-pressure defensive led by Dixon and Steve Blake. Dixon has led the ACC in steals for two consecutive years and Blake defended Williams very well in their three meetings this year. Blake held Williams to 34 percent shooting and helped force 10 turnovers in their first meeting. Terence Morris can block shots and defends very well in the post.

Now we looked at the statistics, the go-to players and the defensive for both teams. Have an idea of who’s going to be cutting down the nets? Good, cause I don’t.

Actually, I lied. I know exactly who is going to win. First, Michigan State will beat Arizona in the first game. Arizona had difficulty stopping Robert Archibald of Scotland and they will have even more trouble stopping Andre Hutson and Zach Randolph inside. Jason Gardner will give Michigan State fits, but Charlie Bell is an old hand in the Final Four. He knows how to get it done. Richardson leads the Spartans with about 18 points. Hutson pulls down double-digit boards.

In the late game, Maryland will even up the season series against Duke. Lonny Baxter will be too much for the thin interior Duke team. Maryland’s perimeter options are almost as good and that will be enough to halt the Jason Williams show. Perhaps with a healthy Boozer, this would be different, but Battier will have to wait until the pros to win a National Championship. Unfortunately, this will keep Jason Williams from turning pro and the Bulls will suffer a couple more losing seasons before they draft him two years from now. Baxter scores 25 points and Dixon notches 20 points. Williams scores 30, but only shot 35 percent from the field.

Then in the championship Maryland’s run will end at the hands of the suffocating Michigan State defensive. The Spartans will not be impressed with Baxter’s 6’8" frame and Richardson’s size and athleticism will cause problems for Dixon. Both will score some points, but not at will as they have this tournament. Hutson will be a force on the offensive glass and force Baxter into quick foul trouble. Hutson scores 16 with 12 rebounds. Bell and Richardson score 14 a piece.

Final score:

Michigan State 77 Maryland 71