The year in film has ended, but the wrap-up has only begun. The calendar year for film awards runs from late March until late March every year with the announcement of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Awards, or more charmingly, the Oscars. (Or, for extra charm, the Oscar®s.) This year, which the mainstream media apparently considers a letdown in the film department, offers a variety of Oscar nomination possibilities; only a few actual underdogs have a chance at the pound, though. (P.S. Please note that The Student Life does not endorse actually caring about the Oscars. The show is nothin’ but political BS, but the prediction game can be simultaneously sickening and intriguing.)

Best Director: Steven Soderbergh will probably get nominated twice (for Traffic and Erin Brockovich), but unless Traffic gets the popular Oscar-voter buzz and USA Films finds the advertising budget to compete with Miramax and Dreamworks, he probably won’t win. The big surprise at the Golden Globes was that Ang Lee won this award for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon without his film being nominated for Best Picture either in the comedy/musical or drama categories. The other two candidates are fishy. Hopefully the Gladiator buzz will slow (I really didn’t like that movie) but now that Ridley Scott has received a Directors Guild of America nomination, he’ll probably slip in here. The same goes for Cameron Crowe, director of Almost Famous. The tales and true-life ("!!") photos of him mentoring young Patrick Fugit playing Crowe as a 15-year old will probably win the hearts of Oscar voters. However, Crowe usually receives screenplay noms and gets shut out of the director’s club. If Scott, Crowe, or Soderbergh (for Brockovich) fall from the list, Lasse Hallstrom could slip in for Chocolat just as he did last year for The Cider House Rules. Longshots could be Curtis Hanson (Wonder Boys), Stephen Daldry (Billy Elliot), Phillip Kaufman (Quills), or Robert Zemeckis (Cast Away).

Check out the men’s club that still dominates Hollywood and the filmmaking industry. Supposedly Sofia Coppola has an outside chance for her striking film The Virgin Suicides, but I don’t have much faith that Hollywood insiders will provide any elbow room.

Best Supporting Actress: Kate Hudson scored a big win at the Golden Globes and upped her Oscar chances. However, she’s going against her Almost Famous co-star Frances McDormand who’s already won an Oscar for Fargo. Oscar voters tend to be more generous with younger actresses in supporting categories (Hudson’s younger than me) than in the leading ones–that’s one of the reasons why Hilary Swank’s win last year for Boys Don’t Cry was such a triumph and surprise. The other contenders could steal this category though. Judi Dench (Chocolat) accompanies McDormand as the other Oscar winner who may receive a nomination. Marcia Gay Harden has received widespread acclaim for Pollock from the few people who have seen the film. Catherine Zeta-Jones took over the family business effectively in Traffic and Julie Walters drew out Jamie Bell’s Billy perfectly in Billy Elliot.

Unfortunately, many actresses who should get nominated won’t. Lena Olin stretched more in Chocolat than Dench did, Elaine May was hilarious in Small Time Crooks, and many other actresses in smaller movies did better work than the main contenders. The one actress who may sneak into this category is Zhang Ziyi, co-star of Hidden Dragon. Her combination of intelligence, intensity, and vulnerability and Ang Lee’s fascination with her face–so many close ups!–could get her a nomination with the help of her newcomer status.

Best Supporting Actor: Benicio Del Toro should probably win this award, but in spite of his Golden Globe win, his chances are probably slipping. Unless Traffic sweeps, some other actor will probably steal this award by virtue of smirking a lot (just call it a "Kevin Spacey"). Albert Finney (Erin Brockovich), Joaquin Phoenix (Gladiator), and Willem Dafoe (Shadow of a Vampire) all smirk in their films and at their leading counterparts. Del Toro’s Tijuana cop doesn’t have much to smirk about in Traffic, but his charm is present and understated. The fifth nomination will probably go to a president, Jeff Bridges (The Contender) or Bruce Greenwood (Thirteen Days), most likely the latter. Underdogs drooling: Fred Willard (Best in Show), Billy Crudup (Almost Famous), and Tobey "will I ever get nominated? I could grow the beard back" Maguire (Wonder Boys). The actor I’d like to see get a nomination is Gary Lewis for playing a father wrestling with the meaning of loyalty in Billy Elliot. Mark Ruffalo has been mentioned with regards to both the supporting actor and actor categories, which will probably, alas. hurt his chances, but wherever he ends up he definitely deserves a nomination for his role in You Can Count On Me.

Best Actress: Three for-sures: Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich), Laura Linney (You Can Count On Me), and Ellen Burstyn (Requiem for a Dream). Juliette Binoche will probably snag one for Chocolat. The scene in which her suitcase tumbles open down the stairs and her face becomes stone is amazing. Also, check out her co-star, Victoire Thivisol, who won best actress at the Venice Film Festival at the age of four for the title role in Ponette. Binoche, as always, shines in this film, revealing vibrance, joy, hurt, guilt, and bravado subtly and by making great choices. Joan Allen, probably the best actress in film for the last six or seven years, may sweep up another Oscar nom for The Contender (no pun intended) to accompany her Nixon and The Crucible nods, or Renee Zellweger may grab a spot, hot off the tails of her Nurse Betty Golden Globe and to make up for her Jerry Maguire snub, but I think Gillian Anderson will pick up the fifth slot for The House of Mirth. Outsiders and not-likelies include Cate Blanchett for the Billy Bob Thornton-penned The Gift, Tracey Ullman for Woody Allen’s Small Time Crooks and newcomer Michelle Rodriguez for Girlfight. Roberts will win; however, the actress who deserves this award is…Björk. The alternapop star with the magnificent voice and super stage presence delivered the best performance, male or female, that I’ve seen all year. As her character, Selma, loses her sight, we gain deeper insight into a soul than a film audience is almost ever allowed (a rare exception being Emily Watson’s Bess in Breaking the Waves, also directed by Lars Von Trier).

Best Actor: Russell Crowe is a great actor. Gladiator is not a great film and certainly not Crowe’s greatest performance (please see The Insider, L.A. Confidential, or even Virtuosity). He is, however, the favorite, running just ahead of two-time winner Tom Hanks (Cast Away). Michael Douglas will probably got nominated for Wonder Boys and could win if a) voters are impressed that he was in both Boys and Traffic and b) voters don’t think Catharine Zeta-Jones is too young for him–sorry to mention that, but I really think foolish considerations factor into Oscar votes. The last two are up in the air. Javier Bardem has won some awards and got a Globe nom, but he’s in a foreign-language film that has been little seen in the U.S. (Before Night Falls), unlike Life is Beautiful or Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, both of which received widespread release. American Psycho was too violent without a strong social message for Christian Bale to pick up a nomination. Finding Forrester’s reviews were too poor for Sean Connery to have a chance, and if Denzel Washington can’t win for Malcolm X or The Hurricane when he was undoubtedly the actor of the year, then he presumably won’t even be nominated for Remember the Titans when he’s probably the actor of the year. That leaves us with four candidates who have a shot: Geoffrey Rush (Quills), Ed Harris (Pollock), John Cusack (High Fidelity), and Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot). Look for the veteran/we-were-nominated-before-hahaha Rush and Harris to fill in the slots. Finally, remember Mark Ruffalo (if you have forgotten, go back up to Best Supporting Actor).

Best Picture: This category is labeled incorrectly. It should be called "Best Marketing Campaign." To be realistic, there are only eight films in the running. Thirteen Days, Wonder Boys, or Quills could conceivably slip in, but the Big 8 favorites include Almost Famous; Billy Elliot; Cast Away; Chocolat; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Erin Brockovich; Gladiator; and Traffic. The three I think will drop from contention are…Billy Elliot, Cast Away, and Erin Brockovich. Really I have no clue, but that’s an educated hunch. Look for the worst one to win. Check out Oscarwatch.com or the Entertainment Weekly Oscarwatch issue in early January for good info.

My Picks:The best films of the year are Dancer in the Dark; Bamboozled; You Can Count On Me; Traffic; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; and Billy Elliot.

The films I have not seen that I’ve heard are great include Thirteen Days, Quills, Wonder Boys, Sunshine, Yi-Yi, Requiem for a Dream, Tigerland, and State and Main.

In regards to my list of best films, please go out and seem them and come back, tell me I’m right or wrong, or that you’re not sure. I’ll congratulate you and we can discuss the foolishness of ever having a definite opinion on anything and how unfortunate it is that we have to argue a point and act like we know what we’re talking about when actually, order to "go anywhere" in the world, you don’t have to have any idea. After that, we can go to a movie.